Risk workflows

Different risk workflows are used within the CLIMAAX framework to evaluate and analyze the climate risks on a particular area. The main goal of the risk workflows is to identify and understand the potential adverse effects of different climate-related hazards, allowing for the development of adaptation sustainable strategies. Each workflow follows a ‘stepwise’ data processing scheme to calculate risk as a combination of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability information:

• Hazard: Source of potential harm leading to an adverse impact. In the context of climate risk assessment, hazards are often associated with natural or human-induced phenomena, such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, storms, and snow events.

• Exposure: Extent to which a particular area, population, or system is exposed to the identified climate hazards. This involves assessing the physical presence and characteristics of elements at risk in the area of interest. In the context of climate risk assessment, exposure can be understood as the extent to which a community, ecosystem, or infrastructure is likely to be affected by a hazard.

• Vulnerability: Susceptibility or predisposition of a system to experience harm or adverse impacts. It includes the characteristics of a community, system, or environment that make it more or less able to cope with a hazard. Vulnerability is influenced by various factors, including social, economic, environmental, and institutional conditions.

Fig. 16 Illustration created by Scriberia with The Turing Way community. CC-BY 4.0. 10.5281/zenodo.3332807

Different workflows have been proposed over the years for assessing climate risk. Within the CLIMAAX toolbox, we implemented these main ones:

• Product between Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability (i.e Risk index method)

• Damage analysis based on damage curves, Hazard, and Exposure

• Exposed assets or population to a certain climate-related hazard

These workflows will allow for the climate risk assessment using both historical information and future climate change scenarios to better understand the range of possible outcomes and identify sustainable adaptation strategies.

Summary of the risk workflow characteristics implemented in the CLIMAAX toolbox

	Hazard type	Risk assessment	Hazard data	Exposure and vulnerability	Risk output
	River floods	Damage assessment	River flood depth and extent maps	Land use, vulnerability damage curves	Map of flood depth and damage
	Coastal floods	Damage assessment	Coastal flood depth and extent maps	Land use, vulnerability damage curves	Map of flood depth and damage
	Flood damage and population exposed	Damage assessment and exposure	Flood depth maps	Open street map, Buildings damage and population exposure	Map of flood damage; population exposed and displaced; exposed critical infrastructures
	Extreme precipitation	Risk index method	Precipitation intensity for a given return period, impact rainfall thresholds	Critical infrastructures and population density	Impact rainfall thresholds; Shift in magnitude and frequency
	Urban heatwaves	Risk index method	Maximum Land Surface Temperature	Population density	Heatwave risk level
	Drought risk	Risk index method	Drought hazard index calculated based on monthly precipitation timeseries	Multiple exposure and vulnerability indices (social and economic)	Map of relative drought risk
	Agricultural drought	Damage assessment	Crop yield reduction	Total crop production and aggregated crops revenue	Map revenue loss
	Wildfire risk	Risk index method	Fire susceptibility	Population, Economy, Ecology	Road, Population, Ecological and Economic risks
	Wildfire exposure	Exposed population	Fire Weather Index	Population density	Exposed population
	Heavy snowfall	Exposed population	Annual probability of occurrence	Population density	Exposed population
	Blizzards	Exposed population	Annual probability of occurrence	Population density	Exposed population
	Windstorm	Damage assessment	Footprint of maximum wind gusts	Land use, vulnerability damage curves	Wind damage map
	Multi-hazard	Risk index method	Precipitation and temperature thresholds as proxy of floods and heatwaves	Airports and sensitivity and adaptive-capacity indicators	Risk maps of extreme temperature and precipitation

Climate data used for historical and future scenarios

	Hazard type	Time horizon(s)	Future scenarios	Datasets
	River floods	1980, 2030, 2050, and 2080	RCPs 4.5 and 8.5	JRC and Aqueduct
	Coastal floods	Historical (ca. 2018) and 2050	RCP 8.5	Flood maps based on GTSM
	Flood damage and population exposed	1980, 2030, 2050, and 2080. Population in 1975, 1990, 2000, 2015 or the population projection of either 2025 or 2030.	RCPs 4.5 and 8.5	JRC, Aqueduct, and GHSL
	Extreme precipitation	Historical (e.g. 1976-2005) and future periods (e.g. 2041-2070)	RCP 8.5	EURO-CORDEX
	Urban heatwaves	Historical (1971-2000) and three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100)	RCPs 4.5 and 8.5	EURO-CORDEX
	Drought risk	Historical (e.g. 1979-2019) and future periods (e.g. 2015-2100)	SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3-RCP7.0, SSP5-RCP8.5	ISIMIP
	Agricultural drought	Historical and future periods (e.g. up to 2050)	RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5	EURO-CORDEX
	Wildfire risk	Two past (1961–1990 and 1991–2010) and five future (2011–2020, 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100) periods	RCPs 4.5 and 8.5	ECLIPS2.0 and EFFIS datasets
	Wildfire exposure	Historical (e.g. 1981-2005) and future periods (e.g. 2021-2098)	RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5	Fire danger indicators
	Heavy snowfall	Historical (e.g. 1940 to present) and three future periods (2011- 2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100)	RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5	ERA5 EURO-CORDEX
	Blizzards	Historical (e.g. 1940 to present) and three future periods (2011- 2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100)	RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5	ERA5 EURO-CORDEX
	Windstorm	Historical (e.g. 1979-2021)	–	Winter windstorm indicators
	Multi-hazard	Historical (e.g. 1961 to 2019) and three future periods (2011-2100)	RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5	UERRA MESCAN-SURFEX; EURO-CORDEX